We are thrilled to announce the release of our latest open-access publication:
We are excited to share that our latest open-access paper, “Uncertain Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycles Complicate the Predictability of Global Energy Transition Pathways”, by Qiu et al., has been published in Earth’s Future (read the paper here).
The study highlights how uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle—the processes by which land ecosystems absorb and release carbon—can substantially influence the predictability of global energy transition pathways designed to meet climate targets. By combining ensemble simulations with integrated assessment modeling, the authors show that these uncertainties affect not only the timing but also the structure of mitigation strategies. For example, the phase-out of unabated coal-fired power is projected to occur around 2050, but the uncertainty range is large, spanning approximately seven years in either direction. Similarly, the projected carbon price by the end of the century is estimated at $170.25 per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent (in 2010 dollars), with an uncertainty of nearly $39.
These findings underscore an often-overlooked challenge in climate policy planning: the interconnected influence of natural system uncertainties on socio-economic decisions. If the carbon cycle behaves differently than expected, energy transition plans may need to be adapted to remain on track. The study also emphasizes the need to improve the representation of carbon cycle processes in integrated assessment models, as narrowing these uncertainties would enhance the reliability of climate policy design.